CTV.ca | Liberals plan to die on budget if brought down

CTV.ca | Liberals plan to die on budget if brought down

New strategy out of the Liberal Party of Canada camp, seems pretty gutsy to me.

This produces 3 possible outcomes as I see it:

-Budget goes down, parliament is dissolved and Paul Martin's Liberals get to campaign on a theme that says "Harper and the Tories are against social investment... (insert program in budget here)". Harper and the Tories then have to begin the campaign on the defensive, spending the first 5-7 days articulating that they didn't vote against the budget, they voted against the Liberals, might be tough for them to gain the mighty "mo".

-Budget passes with slim support, Liberals are able to count on 3 Independent MPs and/or health issues of 2 Conservative MPs & the Speaker. This makes it still possible for the C's to pull down the government on their terms but partially takes away Liberal advantage of using the budget as the campaign issue in their favor. Though, they could still stump on the idea that the C's are against social investment because they voted against the budget.

-Budget passes with broad multi-party support, C's vote for the budget (as they originally said they would, in its pre-NDP-deal form). But, eventually (likely sooner than later) the government is toppled by a Bloc or Conservative non-confidence motion. This would completely eliminate the budget as a campaign issue because the C's voted for it, and they could say so, making the adscam the central reason they go to the people. The Liberals would be forced on the defensive early on. This also gives the Conservative party the timing lever, though it could be argued they own it anyway.

I think the Liberals would like to see option 1 or two play out, but would prefer option 1.

The Conservatives would be foolish not to go for option three, in my humble opinion.

A.L.