Fingers in the wind....

CTV.ca | Liberals' lead over Tories remains stable: poll

In these boring (politically) days of summer, what do the pundits do to pass the time? Analyze polls.

This is a CTV.ca article that confirms some of the things in my last post. But interestingly it goes into further detail showing the mood of the electorate surrounding each of the party leaders. Harper isn't the only one who needs shark repellent.

Interestingly, the electorate cannot point to substantive achievements of the minority government. I know that I am closer to the ranks of pundits than average joe Canadian but really!?!? Didn't we just see the re-definition of marriage in Canada? I guess sometimes it is a good thing to have one's perspective brought back down to reality.

This gave me some hope though:

As expected, "hard" and "soft" Liberals have a strongly positive view of the government's performance, but "potential" Liberal voters (67 per cent) also believe that the government has performed well.

And

It appears Canadians have grown tired of minority government wrangling. The poll found a clear consensus among Canadians that they would like to see a return to a majority government. A full 58 per cent said they prefer a majority government, while just 32 per cent prefer a minority government.

It's not clear yet, which party will become that majority though, so until then we will have to see. The Liberals have the upper hand right now, but it's still a long time (politically) off.

Other interesting notes I take from this article:

• Harper's "gotten worse" numbers have nearly doubled in 3 months time. Meaning the number of people whose impression of Harper has "gotten worse" has gone from 21 percent to 41 percent. But can you blame em? Remember this time period included the attempted non-confidence motion, the Grewal scandal, the Tories being outflanked by the Liberals and NDP on the budget's passage, and finally the passage of the Same-sex marriage bill. All losses for Harper and the Tories. His "improved" numbers are getting worse too.

• While Harper's fortunes may be waning, the Tory numbers seem to have stabilized.

• Harper faces stark numbers against him in his own backyard, 45% of Western Canadians say he should be replaced, and even 33% of his own party (hard and soft Tories).

• Martin's numbers are not much better with the general public, though he has seen a 5% increase in his "improved" impression numbers and a 7% drop in his "gotten worse" numbers.

Nevertheless the article is correct to note that Martin and Harper are both facing a large % of unfavorables. Both have much work to do, but it looks like Martin is safer in his own camp than Harper is. I say this because of the raw numbers, but also with the recognition that while polls are essentially a snap-shot of the current reality, it is most important to note the trends that are observable.

The trends are not good for Harper.

A.L.