When is it fair to measure traction and resonance?

A few days ago, I was alerted to CPAC-SES's daily tracking polls for the Canadian Federal Election.

So now, every day I get a new email with the latest national numbers.

Pretty cool.

Now I got this one today:

If the election were held Sunday night, it would have likely yielded the exact same result as the previous election. Based on the tracking completed Sunday all three major parties registered the same support as the election in June 2004 (Liberal 37, Conservative 30, NDP 16).

The Bloc as of Sunday night registered 13% support (one point higher than the last election) and the Green Party 5% (one point higher than the last election).

Sunday was a particularly good day for both Stephen Harper and Jack Layton. Their performance scores for Sunday were up while the Paul Martin's daily evaluation slid. Also of note is that the percentage of Canadians who are unsure who would make the best PM has continued to climb and is now at 22%.

Polling December 2 to December 4, 2005 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.

All values in parenthesis are changes from our November 13th national survey.

Decided Voters
LIB - 37% (+3)
CP - 30% (+2)
NDP - 16% (-4)
BQ - 13% (-1)
GP - 5% (+1)
*18% of Canadians were undecided (+4)

In Quebec:
BQ - 49% (-5)
LIB - 30% (+6)
CP - 12% (+3)
NDP - 6% (-2)
GP - 4% (NC)

Best PM
Martin - 28% (-1)
Unsure - 22% (+9)
Harper - 19% (-3)
None - 12% (+1)
Layton - 10% (-6)
Duceppe - 6% (-1)
Harris - 2% (-2)

Leadership Index (Daily composite of the Leaders' Trust, Competence and Vision)*
Martin - 73 (-9)
Harper - 57 (+8)
Layton - 33 (+8)
Duceppe - 31 (+1)
Harris - 8 (0)
* Change for this measure is from yesterday's composite score.

On the SES website (www.sesresearch.com), we post updated daily longitudinal tracking chart, regional breakdowns and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.

For any media use of the polling data, we need to clearly identify the sponsor (CPAC). Please refer to the research as the CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking.

Feel free to forward this e-mail.

Cheers,
Nik
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Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President & CEO
SES Research

Thanks Nik, and cheers to you bud!

Some think these numbers indicate that Harper's message and skillful 1st week may not be paying any dividends...

The latest headlines in the Globe, CBC, and CTV say (paraphrasing here) "Harper's campaigning well and still setting the agenda, but it doesn't seem to be taking hold."

I think it could be a little premature to suggest that the Conservative Party's strategy is not working. But how long is long enough?

Weigh in people, let me know what you think in your comments.

A.L.