Liberal bounce-back? SES Poll results

NationState 2005Q2 Ballot.pdf (application/pdf Object)

In a recent post I asked, where are all the polls? There have been a flurry of them since.

This link above opens a .pdf of two polls conducted by SES Research, the polling company that conducts all of CPAC's polls. The document illustrates the differences between the two polls and shows that the Liberal Party has gained back some of the support it lost. The two polls were taken between April 14-18 and April 30 - May 4th.

A couple of important developments have taken place in that time period, the publication ban on the Gomery inquiry was lifted, Prime Minister Paul Martin addressed the nation, promising an election within 30 days of the Gomery report delivery, and the Conservative-Bloc alliance began to rattle the cage.

What is most striking (to me) in these poll results is the following:

-Liberal party numbers up almost 5% nationally.
-Conservative Party numbers down more than 8% nationally.
-NDP up 3% nationally.
-In the Atlantic, big shifts, with the Liberals moving up 8 points, and the Conservatives down more than 10 points.
-Not much change in Quebec for the Liberals, but the BQ lost 3 points and the Conservatives dropped 4. The NDP seemed to pick up all of these points.
-Ontario is edging back into safe territory for the Liberals again and the Conservatives have dropped more than 13 points. These points seem to be traded almost 2:1 in the NDP's favour.
-Out west the Liberals have gained points and the Conservative numbers have crested, coming back to 41%. Those who parked thir votes with the NDP seem to have come back to the Liberals again.

Factors that ought to be considered in reading the tea leaves (in my opinion):

-Every day for the last week since this poll was conducted the Gomery inquiry continues to deliver body blows to the Liberals and Martin in particular.
-The BC provincial election has become much tighter in recent days (so I am hearing) and this is essentially just a contest between the provincial wings of the Liberal and NDP parties. Fluctuations in voter mood in that province could be skewing the "west" numbers, which may account for the movement in the west from the NDP to the Liberals and back.
-The recent shenanigans in the House of Commons are going to have one of two effects on the public, they'll believe that all politicians are clowns and they've turned the Commons into a circus, or they will think that Paul Martin's Liberals are relentlessly and maybe even unscrupulously clinging to power. The interpretation depends on how you intend to vote, methinks.

One danger in all of this is that all of the happenings - the adscam itself, the Conservative's soul-selling deal with the BQ, the Liberal party's deal with the NDP, and the recent, repeated paralysis of Commons perpetrated by the Con-BQ alliance - could seriously depress voter turn-out... and THAT would be terrible for Cana