As I said before, it is the battle for the undecideds.

TheStar.com - Fence-sitters favour Liberals: Poll:

As I posted before, this has become a battle for the undecideds.

This article shows some promise for the Liberal party, and for all of us as these undecideds might just save us from a Harper majority.

"To sharpen the focus on the uncommitted voters who will likely determine the outcome of the election, Decima broke out the truly undecided and leaning voters from a survey of 4,804 voters outside Quebec, conducted Dec. 29-31.

From that larger survey, which has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points 19 times out of 20, Decima found 20 per cent were committed to voting Liberal, 20 per cent for the Conservatives and 10 per cent for the New Democratic Party.

It found 47 per cent were uncommitted, including 14.2 per cent who were truly undecided and another 32.4 per cent who said they may yet change their vote, although they were leaning to one of the parties.

In analyzing that 47 per cent, Decima, which is working with Carleton University's School of Journalism and Communications, found two distinct groups: 12 per cent who were torn between the Conservatives and Liberals and 14 per cent who were torn between the Liberals and the NDP.

'They are actively considering both options and they will probably be the groups that most determine the outcome,' Anderson said.

As I said before I am not completely hostile to a Conservative minority kept in check by many Liberals and the left-leaning NDP and Bloc.

If this polling analysis by Decima is accurate (I hope it is) the undecideds, who are mostly women, are more likely to lean toward the Liberal Party.

Both groups share a below-average preoccupation with the sponsorship scandal, a weaker desire for change and the conviction that the eight-week campaign didn't really start until the new year.

The latter point could prove damaging for Harper, who unveiled most of his party's major platform planks prior to the Christmas holidays. Martin has saved his major announcements for the new year, although so far they have been overshadowed by renewed focus on alleged government ethical lapses.

I have spoken to a friend in Ontario twice in the past year, right around the May shenanigans in the House, and just a few days ago, and each time he's confirmed this with me... the Sponsorship Scandal is really a non-issue with him.

Those torn between the Liberals and NDP were more likely to be female, aged 35-54 and members of a visible minority. They tended to think the Liberals were the best choice to govern and that Martin was the best choice for prime minister. However, they also tended to think the NDP had the best approach to issues they care about most.

This is good:

At the time of the survey, they were leaning 52 to 36 per cent toward the Liberals.

They were three times more likely to be motivated by fear of a Conservative government than a desire for change. Fully 86 per cent agreed there were good reasons to keep the Liberals in government despite the sponsorship scandal and 78 per cent (30 points above average) said their vote would turn on social issues.

By contrast, only 13 per cent said their vote would hinge on economic issues (11 points below average) and nine per cent on issues of integrity (18 points below average).

More motivated by fear of Harper's gang eh? Read further, it gets better...

As for the specific issues that would be critical in determining their final choice, voters in this group were more likely to say health care, the environment, Harper's personality, same-sex marriage (empahsis added), national unity and a desire to avoid a right-wing government.

Could that 1st day announcement come back to bite him in the ass?

A little silver lining for Harper...

Voters torn between the Liberals and Conservatives tended to be female, under 35 or over 55 years of age, and more likely to be on the right of the political spectrum. At the time of the survey, they were leaning equally towards the two parties.

This, however, suggests that these undecideds will not split evenly between the Liberals and Tories.

Nevertheless, this group tended to think the Liberals were best to govern and Martin the best choice for prime minister. However, the Conservatives had a slight edge as the party thought to have the best approach on the issues these voters care about most (48 per cent for the Tories versus 42 per cent for the Liberals).

Still, 60 per cent agreed there were good reasons for keeping the Liberals in office despite the sponsorship scandal.

Uh, oh... better look for a new policiette to sell.

The economy was the primary motivating factor for this group. Thirty-eight per cent said economic issues would drive their vote (15 points above average). By contrast, 35 per cent cited social issues (13 points below average) and 26 per cent cited integrity (one point below average).

Man, it's too bad for the Liberals that they've so poorly managed the economy... oh wait they haven't.....

Harper is attempting to capitalize on the mood for change in the general populace.

But Anderson said the analysis of uncommitted voters suggests he has to be careful not to advocate anything that is deemed too radical a change on the economic front, for fear of alienating those torn between the Liberals and Conservatives, or on the social front, for fear of alienating those torn between the Liberals and NDP.

'If he appears to be advocating too radical a change agenda, he's going to make them anxious.'"

Hence, the current Tory strategy of "Agenda hiding, and candidate muzzling."

Anyhow, it will take a while to see how tonight's debates had an effect on the horse-race, if any, but this article gives the Board a few more days before they'll have to fall on their swords.

All that said, Calgary Grit has posted about some astonishing poll results in favor of the CPC.... Watch the news tomorrow.

A.L.