It is official! PMPM is in the political fight of his life!

Hot out of my email inbox!

While this is still a statistical tie, I suspect the mainstream media will hype it up for what it is, the fiirst Tory lead of this campaign. And rightly so.

As I stated in an earlier post, this is the battle for the undecideds, and it will be won or lost on voter turn-out, which in Canada means weather as Calgary Grit continues to posit. After all this survey says 17% are undecided and voting day is January 23rd, IN CANADA!

Content of the email:

“CPAC-SES tracking shows the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals for the first time in the campaign. Stephen Harper is also statistically tied with Paul Martin as the party leader Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister. The three point Tory lead is on the cusp of the margin of accuracy among decided voters. Tracking completed Tuesday night has the Conservatives at 36%, the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 15%, the BQ at 13% and the Green Party at 4% nationally.”– Nik Nanos, President, SES Research

Polling December 29 to 30, 2005 and January 3, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.

All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.

Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 3, 2006)

CP 36% (+7)
LIB 33% (-4)
NDP 15% (NC)
BQ 13% (-1)
GP 4 (-1)

*17% of Canadians were undecided (+1)

In Quebec

BQ 52% (+2)
LIB 27% (-3)
CP 12% (+3)
NDP 6% (NC)
GP 3% (-3)

*20% of Quebecers were undecided (+9)

In Ontario

CP 39% (+6)
LIB 38% (-4)
NDP 16% (-2)
GP 7% (+2)

*15% of Ontarians were undecided (-5)

Outside Quebec

CP 43% (+6)
LIB 34% (-5)
NDP 17% (-2)
GP 5% (+1)

*16% of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-1)

Best PM

Martin 26% (-3)
Harper 25% (+4)
Unsure 18% (+1)
Layton 12% (-2)
None 10% (-2)
Duceppe 7% (+1)
Harris 2% (NC)



Leadership Index [Daily composite of the Leaders’ Trust, Competence and Vision]*

Martin 68 (-8)
Harper 65 (+2)
Layton 47 (+8)
Duceppe 26 (NC)
Harris 6 (-3)

* Change for this measure is from yesterday’s composite score.

Backed in a corner.... Let's see what happens.

Better go fire up that vaunted "Liberal Election Machine" that PET mused about in his Memoirs.

A. pprehensive Liberal.